Please don't say "3 Oscars do happen" without presenting some kind of argument backing your claim. It's not constructive. At least explain how you've come to that conclusion. (No, seeing 3 Oscars on a line that's not activated doesn't count -- this isn't a "mechanical" slot machine; it could be programmed to display 3 delicious bagels on an activated line, but that doesn't mean they will ever appear on an activated one...)
@ Everyone else:
I was really interested in this feature of the game when it was still new. Within the first few weeks, it did seem like it could be profitable. I personally believe the odds were tweaked since then, making 10k/1k/250 wins significantly harder. I ran a lottery pool for my guild, and collectively, we pushed a whole mess of tickets -- some as part of this pool, and some on our own. None of us have ever won the jackpot. Nor have I ever heard of anyone winning one, after starting a long thread about it.
I have no issue with the fact that the slot machine is low-yield, because free tickets are given daily. As DeepEnd pointed out, not spending money on the thing means you will continue to profit from it. However, if the 250k jackpot can't actually be won, or the odds of winning it are so low as to be mathematically insignificant, its presence on the jackpot screen is misleading, and therefore unfair.
Just my two cents on all of this.
Its not against UR's interests to lie or fraud on this thing if its rare enough not to affect pack buys. We can measure how much UR can toss "free stuff" away - and that is about 15M worth of CR's every single day for DT's.
So. We know UR dishes out way more value automatically than slots jackpot is - so they are not concerned over "lost value" per random player. Also 250k clintz is not that meaningful flat amount of clintz in the stream to affect market much. Why would it subject slots to questionable activity? That makes no sense. Also it would make no sense to make 3xOscars too common, so every player would get one say - once per three years just by using free tickets available. That would be revenue lost, because everyone gets jackpot eventually.
Most rational choise is to make these jackpots real but really really rare. That way they do not affect play balace much, but lack of wins does not ultimately generate suspicions as long as someone(s) get it every now and then - this resembles the way real life slots and their odds are calculated in grand casinos.
There is no rational reason to fraud.
", if the 250k jackpot can't actually be won, or the odds of winning it are so low as to be mathematically insignificant"
Well. Do you consider real life lottery unfair with insignificant win chance but really significant win amount on top prizes? - Isnt it upto the players to figure out if its worth the bet? Gambling is always against the odds.
"There is no rational reason to fraud."
In short, your assumption is based on the fact that you think generally reasonable people will *always* make reasonable choices... And what's more, that code written by reasonable people will *always* behave reasonably. That's... Not reasonable.
We can't discount the possibility of, for example, some bug that keeps the 250k win from triggering. (If it's a very rare event, it would be hard to test reliably, right?)
Here's a fact. Since the slot machine has been implemented, I have not been able to find a single instance of a player bragging about it on the boards, despite several threads on the topic. It seems unlikely to me that people win the jackpot on, let's say, something like a weekly basis, yet no one has mentioned winning on the boards. I am basing my assumptions that something is amiss on that fact.
Here's another fact. The slot machine replaced the tombola, which used to award much bigger jackpots (sometimes worth several m) every day, and made the names of the winners available.
I don't disapprove of the decisions the developers made here, and I am by no means saying that we're getting ripped off. After all, we have CRs given away through DTs now, at a much higher rate than the tombola ever did. I simply disapprove of the fact that there is information withheld from the players here, with no apparent purpose. 10k and 250k winners could easily be displayed somewhere.
I have won 10,000 once, but that was after 5 hours of straight playing the slots. I was on a mission myself to see if I could make profit on the slots, after constantly taking a loss in clintz (from buying 10 tickets for 125 clintz and making less than what I spent), I finally made a slight profit, by hitting the 10K prize. I believe I only came out ahead by like 2K that day, so in the end I think that it is possible to hit the 250K jackpot, but only after someone takes a loss of over 100K, or possibly even more. All in all, I think its just much more efficient to play the market, than hope for the 250K jackpot.
Lets put chances in to play..
This thread has 2 people who have hit 10000 clintz - I am the other one btw... . Lets make bold assumption that chances are directly porpotional to amount of clintz.
We'd need 25 people with 10000 clintz wins to have roughly 50:50 chance of meeting someone with Jackpot. Now - this speculative chance says we have less than 10% chance of finding jackpot amongst the people who have opened and attended to this thread...
While totally unproven - this is still fair assumption that goes along nicely with mathematical facts.
Being a programmer myself, I have seen many slot machine scripts that manages the ratio of investment and return. The profit would usually go in the favor of developers. Though I hardly believe that UR would be keeping their profit from this thing. They don't have any "actual" value to lose.
To be honest, I really don't expect to win the jackpot of any greater than 100 Clintz. Yet, I play lottery a lot, sometimes by buying tickets. The reason of this is the pure excitement I feel while watching the slots shuffling. I wouldn't complaint about the return not being high, it's all about fun in the end.
Though, I will complaint about one thing: ticket gains. Apart from missions, the player can only play slots once a day (AFAIK). I really want this increased. Just give out tickets (3 tickets usually turn out to be 15 clintz + 1 ticket or 30 clintz) on not-so-hard to achieve things. Some of them could be:
1) Survivor 5+ wins
2) Completion of all 3 duel missions
3) Every week based on activity
Good idea I would like that too
But don't forget there is the guild bonuses that increase your daily tickets
I think they should do a big lottery a month with massive prizes. And it wouldn't only be the long term players who won but also the rookies as when u are a rookie there are times you fell that you account isn't going anywhere. I know sometimes I feel that now
What happens to your estimate when you include the entire guilds of every person in this thread?
Not only has no one *in this thread* won the jackpot, but nobody in this thread *knows anyone who has.* Nor did anybody in the last thread about this topic, which was much bigger.