Well. That is valid. Lets magnify by 20 then but assume the groups mentioned overlap more than moderately (they do.). That would questimate to about 50-70% chance of seeing one.
Not yet even domain of bad luck (90%+ chances missed.)
Also this is completely borked by fair assumption that win chance is not porpotional to win amount, and win chances are slimmer- say 1/200th of chance of winning 10k.
Pick variables to back your assumptions and put your trolling goggles on
Why magnify by 20? Why use 10k winners as a jumping off point -- shouldn't we be using the number of tickets played as a jumping off point, instead? 10k winners don't get us anywhere, especially if what I suspect is true... Which is that the odds of big wins were more favorable early on in the life of the slot machine, and then were adjusted down. There are several 10k winners I'm aware of in my guild. All of those 10k wins were achieved when the slot machine was still very new, not a single one of them (that I know of) is recent.
The more interesting point is that the odds are definitely low enough to be misleading, no matter how we try to estimate them... It's obvious that collectively, the players in these guilds have invested SEVERAL MILLION of clintz worth of tickets in the slot machine (I'm counting the free tickets here, too -- they should contribute to the odds of winning the jackpot as much as paid tickets.) Limit Break alone has 74 members, most of them active. The three ticket per day bonus is active for you guys, and I'm sure has been active for a long time... Do some very quick math and you'll see.
The bottom line is that the odds of winning the jackpot seem to be ridiculous, and completely disproportional to the prize. If that were not the case, a member of some big guild would have chimed in with "I know a guy who won and took screenshots to prove it" by now.
"Why magnify by 20? Why use 10k winners as a jumping off point -- shouldn't we be using the number of tickets played as a jumping off point, instead?"
Simple - it does not matter if we look at the number of tickets or the odds of second best prize - they would fall on the same curve but on the different level. If we inspect how common or rare jackpot is - it is best measured out of next best thing.
This is comparing apples to oranges instead trying to figure out what apples are basing on the size of the shop they are sold in so to speak.
"e bottom line is that the odds of winning the jackpot seem to be ridiculous"
One thing I have learned about UR staff - they have promised players absolutely nothing. They have not promised fair play, not that their investments on market are secure or if they sell their CR accidentally for 100 clintz they will get it back. Nor they have promised that any LD is being continued to distribute or that new cards will be released every other friday - and they havent promised they wont mess the game modes by creating absolutely pointless "standard formats".
Some things repeat so often so regulary they can be considered "promise" - but in reality they are not.
UR has not promised that winning a jackpot is within reasonable chances, they have just said there is one and I'd assume its true and it is possible to get it.
And what comes to playing the gamble - when you buy the tickets its all Caveat Emptor.
In one corner we have your assumption.
In the other corner we have my fact ("no one, not anyone in the biggest guilds, has come forth claiming to so much as know a winner."
I'm not saying that this fact is 100% proof that the jackpot is unattainable, but it is some concrete proof supporting my argument.
You have offered nothing but assumptions.
I don't think that they're bad assumptions under normal circumstances, but you can look around and easily find Tombola winners, guys who have won Generals or Gurus from ELO, etc etc. You can track down lots of people who have managed to win very unlikely things. The fact that you can't track down a jackpot winner is cause for alarm.
You are completely correct -- the UR staff are well within their rights to do whatever they like with the slot machine, and I have heard some people make the argument that the slot machine is supposed to be in a Montana casino, so from a "story" point of view it would make sense if it was rigged.
But just because the staff are in their right to do something doesn't make it fair.
You could wake up one day and find every single card you like permanently changed to a 1/1.
That would be something that the developers are within their right to do. Nevertheless, it wouldn't be fair to the players.
I personally wasted a valuable resource trying to win that jackpot while I was running my guild's lotto pool. That resource was my time. If the jackpot can't be won, that's not fair.