I'll do a bit of preliminary anlysis on the cost-effectiveness of the different .
First, let's split the New Blood & Mega New Blood from the other packs. They have different appoaches anyhow.
NB = 3 (new) cards inc. 0 rare min. , for 20 creds
2xNB = 6 (new) cards inc. 0 rare min. , for 40 creds
MNB = 7 (new) cards inc. 1 rare min. , for 40 creds
So, MNB > NB. (">" means "better than"
Now let's compare Elite vs Ultimate vs Titanium.
EL = 7 cards inc. 1 rare min. , for 40 creds
UL = 12 cards inc. 3 rare min. , for 90 creds
TI = 30 cards inc. 6 rare min. , for 180 creds
Based on what I've seen so far, I'm making the following ASSUMPTION on how the cards in a pack are distributed: Every card that's not guaranteed to be rare, has a big chance Z to be Common, a small chance Y to be Uncommon and a very small chance X to be Rare, with X+Y+Z = 1
My GUESS is this: Z = 0.60 Y = 0.35 X = 0.05
I'm also assuming that EL/UL/TI all have the same chance distributions!!
I think it is in UR's best interest to make Titanium as the best pack possible since it mean people will use 180 credits straight away. IMO, they did a great job. but I think titanium should be something like 13 cards? it is kinda imbalance to destroy one pack so another pack looks much better
but I really miss the old elite. 25 credits for 3 cards from 4 selected clans. I got so many amazing cards from that pack.. (I don't know why, but I opened it like 4-5 times and always get a good rare or uncommon that costs above 10K)
IMO, I don't think you can collect token that easily.. IMO, it should be something like 100-200 tokens for one Cr pack (with 1 Cr in it). I think it is very reasonable (with assumption 1 token = finish within top 1/3 of a tournament. so in total is 100-200 tournaments). we don't want to crash the Cr price while keep maintaining players' interest to play DT
I'm not so sure about the Titanium pack being the most cost effective.
Say you have 360 credits and you have two choices:-
1. 2 Titanium packs 60 cards 12 rare guaranteed. Max 2 Doubles
2. 9 Elite packs 63 cards with 9 rare guaranteed. Max 9 Doubles
The Titanium pack does give you 3 more rare cards guaranteed whilst the Elite pack give you 3 more cards
Given the current situation of the market All Stars Bangers Freaks Jungo Montana Pussycats Roots Sentinel all have relatively better priced uncommons than their rare cards.
Junkz and Uppers are on the borderline whilst the rest have relatively better priced rares.
and considering the doubles you obviously wouldn't want Sakura more than 2 times which the Titanium ensures but what about more than 2 Charlie? I mean there is a possibility of that if the Elite packs are chosen.
I guess the Titanium pack is less risky. and the Elite a bit more risky.
But I don't think the Titanium pack is guaranteed THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE!
Please admins/mods correct me if I'm wrong.
And If it is not guaranteed that the Titanium will always be most cost effective, wouldn't it be wrong to label it such?
there is possibility that 9 pack of Elite can beat 2 packs of titanium pack. but really, what is the chance of it?
IMO, it is not a bit more risky, it is much more riskier than you think.
how about 2 Leila then? or Na Boh, Joao, Dash?
it is not fair to compare the best result of a pack VS another pack.
no one said "guarantee" really, how could you say "guarantee" in a game of chance?
in average, titanium most likely gonna beat other packs. but there are few extreme cases that Elite can beat Titanium
in fact, every single pack can beat Titanium, yes, even the worst pack, ultimate, can beat titanium. but the chance?
I think UR already right labeling the Titanium "most cost effective" because in average, Titanium will give the most clintz per credit ratio. they are not lying, it has the best clintz / credit ratio like the TS said (as long as you focus on rares instead of uncommons)
I asked earlier because it helps everyone track previous Pack releases.
It also helps Tranquil_Suit adjust his math if required.
We know UR tweaks this game & packs to favour 'the house' just like a casino & Sega's Key Master machines. There are whispers of Paid Credits receiving better card vs Free Credit pack purchases
My understanding is that each pack is generated according to an algorithm that prevents % of jackpot pack pulls. Sure you'll pull a Noctezuma or Charlie or Dregn, perhaps even a double of a good card
However, as we've seen in Duel, UR can tweak Card randomness. At Duel's release, all Commons were handed out, then only a handful of expensive Commons, now most are 200 Ctz 2* 3* Commons
So I suppose a good method to improve your pack pulls is to use UR's randomness to your advantage
Whereas a buyer is betting on 1 pack pull when buying a 180 Credit Ultimate, if the generated cards are cr@p then too bad
Alternately you could buy 4x Elite for 160 Credits separately (or together) and hope the Card Generator gods are smiling upon you. Then use your remaining 20 Credits on NB Classic and pull Campbell. Voila! I believe that more risk but rewards may be higher than relying on 1 Ultimate pack
I'll have some free time in 3 weeks and will spend an evening doing some more calculations
I will take into account the advantage of possible good doubles. As well as prevention of jackpot pulls. As well as some concrete numbers with 'well chosen' clans. And anything else that might pop up.
The main problem is the lack of data. This causes the design of optimal strategies for buying packs to be based on a lot of speculation. If the community could gather 50 pack results per pack type, that'd already be something to work with.
So I was bored and looked at the Spanish forum. They have a whole thread dedicated to players showing the cards they've obtained from packs. Maybe we should have a thread like that here on the English forum.
I threw together a quick spreadsheet to gauge where I'm going to spend my future credits. I've concluded that the maximum value on the market per credit is with the purchase of Mega New Blood packs and Elite packs.
I made the following assumptions/estimations to come to that conclusion:
1. The chance of pulling a common card from a pack is twice as likely as an uncommon. You will get exactly the number of stated rares in a pack. What this means in practice is that you get one rare, two uncommons and four commons in Mega New Blood packs and Elite packs. I believe this is pretty close to true.
2. the average value of a common card on the market is 450 C, uncommons are around 4800 and a rare is about 14,300. This is debatable - I didn't go and find the actual average value for each rarity, I ran a decent estimation. If anyone has better numbers, let me know.,