offline rivalry01 Guru  
Wednesday 10/10/2012, 05:44

I just started experimenting with a half deck in elo. I was assuming it should be about 50% 2/2 (2 cards from each clan I mean). In 48 fights I've only gotten 2/2 11 times, or about 23%. I know 48 isn't a large sample but it's consistently hovering around 21%. Is there some card selection process I don't know about, or am I just having bad beginner's luck?


offline ghelas Titan E X C A L I B U R
Wednesday 10/10/2012, 07:13

It should be about 50% 2/2, so you may very well just be having a run of bad luck. Keep in mind that this can happen every once in a while, and try to build a deck where base stats and abilities are good enough so that a card without bonus isn't rendered useless.


offline DragoRoyal Titan E X C A L I B U R
Wednesday 10/10/2012, 07:33

Apparently it's 51.4%


offline Infiniti Colossus Open Casket starstarstarstar
Wednesday 10/10/2012, 19:39

Remember if you opp has Higher/ Lower star'ed hand you get a hand star'ed around it

So if your high star'ed are one clan and low on the other this will vary your results


offline Frowns Titan At the End of the World
Wednesday 10/10/2012, 20:06

First off, we find the number of possible combinations in an eight card deck. Since order doesn't matter and since a card can't be picked twice, we find the binomial distribution and get:

Where n is the number of cards in a deck (smiley and k is the number of cards in a hand (4):

Number of combinations = n!/(k!(n-k)!) = 8!/(4!(8-4)!)

Now, we need to know the amount of combinations that add up to two cards from each clan. Once again, we find the binomial distribution but this time with the number of cards in one hand (4) and the number of cards from one specific clan in a 2/2 hand (2).

Number of combinations = n!/(k!(n-k)!) = 4!/(2!(4-2)!) = 6

But remember: For each of the six combinations in one clan, there are also six possible combination for the other clan. For this reason, we square 6.

6^2 = 36

We divide the number of 2/2 hands by the total number of hands and get:

36/70 = 0.514 = 51.4%

Statistics are fun smiley


offline rivalry01 Guru  
Thursday 11/10/2012, 02:41

The deck was pretty balanced. I figured it was just bad luck. Thanks guys.


offline Memento Mori Titan Open Casket
Thursday 11/10/2012, 02:46

If you save your deck as a preset you can find out all those statistics.


offline DeepEnd Imperator Limit Break
Friday 12/10/2012, 11:12

Mathematical chance is supposing there is no bias towards selection but it its totally random.

Since we are not certain if there is bias we cannot use mathematical model, but have to rely on repeated tests.

Thats why rivalry01 brought this up, UR does NOT promise that draws are made purely of luck, therefore to test against bias you need real tests and not mathematical theory.


offline ghelas Titan E X C A L I B U R
Friday 12/10/2012, 17:59

Occam's Razor, ladies and gents. UR staff chose to display the odds that are based purely on luck on preset pages. It makes the most sense, then, that the draws are indeed based on luck.


offline KillerYuri Hero  
Saturday 13/10/2012, 01:28

I find it strange that sometimes I drew exactly the same decks in a row. Is it just me?


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