DT Lottery Magic Numbers

Thursday 26/04/2012, 15:16

Thought I should wait, but then decided otherwise.
The DT lottery algorithm programmed into the UR mainframe is becoming a bit predictable. If you draw a frequency distribution curve with the already awarded prices, we can find most of them huddled around two magic numbers.
I have found two. 33 and 94. Meaning if you are placed around these two places in DT, you stand a better chances of winning a prize in DT, the former being better (less standard deviation in the case of latter).
Any thoughts on this?

Thursday 26/04/2012, 16:52

I think you deserve Fields Medal :thumbsup:

Friday 27/04/2012, 05:16

It's still not a huge sample size, but something to keep an eye on.

Friday 27/04/2012, 11:00

Exactly my point. Not a huge sample size, but even with this limited sample size, the emerging trend is clear.
The random number generating algorithm, if not re-programmed on a periodic basis, will generate random numbers clustered around predictable numbers.

Friday 27/04/2012, 16:29

You might be looking too much into it, only time will tell. ;-)

Monday 30/04/2012, 16:04

Haha, mate, well said. The sample size is too low to make good deductions, but still, look at the results after my posting this. if it ain't 33+/- 8, it's 94+/- 8 ;)

Tuesday 01/05/2012, 00:24

Yeah, but if you rank the highest among the 5 winners, you still get the best card... today's DJ Korr Cr winner was in 8th place, while 120th place got Noodile Cr...

and, from experience, aiming for a particular spot in DT can be difficult, especially now with shorter timers and more players XD

so what would be the odds of winning a Cr anyway? around 1/360, or probably slightly better, considering the people who rank in more than one DT per day... so, if you play in tourney every day for a year, on average you should win at least one Cr! :-d

in any case, i'm not sure it's really worth it to sacrifice the extra prize money every time, when there's really no guarantee of winning a Cr anyway. and it's still random enough that top 25ers or even top 10s will get the grand prize, a lot of the time. that being said, it's interesting to see how this will develop...

Tuesday 01/05/2012, 12:39

@FofP: Dude, look closer. There is a Scarlett Cr going to the 33+6th place and Dwain Cr to the 94+5th place. Check the result well before posting just for posting's sake.

Tuesday 01/05/2012, 15:06

Merlin have you checked this for ELO prices aswell?:thumbsup:
Or is it only in DT?

Tuesday 01/05/2012, 17:41

Haha, mate, I found this by happenstance, but statistical analysis proves I have almost struck paydirt. If someone goes through the ELO draws with a fine comb like SPSS (I might do that if I can find the time), he might find something interesting.
DT draws are easier to track because it is new and I have all the draw results till now at hand; that's why I analysed this instead of ELO.


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