Shall we open a thread dedicated exclusively for posting the big winnings and losses we all had and still have, and will always have; with this infernal machine?
Big winners, please post here with a screenshot hosted in tinypic or elsewhere (no, tinypic is not paying me anything. )
Also please post useable statistics regarding what you think is the investment:return ratio and the probability of each of the objects appearing in each column (that is for advanced statisticians).
Let's have a go and see whether there is any point in playing it, or we can gather enough information and then approach the developers with improvement ideas. Thank you all.
First of all, UR let us know how many people participated in the tombola for the day and who the winner was. The number of players usually ranged around 10-20k, depending on the prize.
Secondly, anybody had the freedom to play 25 tickets. Tickets were just about free: you could buy cheap uncommons, sell them to Kate with a net loss of a few hundred Clintz, and win most of it back with the 100s you got by guessing the correct number in a set of 0-9.
So, let's assume everyone played the max number of tickets. If so, my odds of winning would be 1/10k - 1/20k, same as any other player's. But the truth is, I doubt that even a single player who played the tombola bet max tickets every single day. So on any day when you bet the max number of tickets, your odds might actually be even better than 1/10k. Unless I am somehow mistaken, your estimate of 1/750k is way off the mark.
However, my point still stands... they're still chasing an unlikely dream.
UR currently has 24 430 386 players, and assume that 22 000 000 players are level 30+. Even with 25 tickets, what are the chances that you will win an expensive Cr?
Plus, with DTs giving out lots of CRs daily, won't the addition of another expensive Cr given out for free will affect the market? Who knows, maybe a lucky nouveau riche will get too overconfident and reckless, and start manipulating the market prices.
@ghelas: The 750k is the maximum if 30k players all played 25 tickets
It was probally more around a 1/300k chance if you used 1 ticket a 25/300k (1/12k) chance if you used all 25. Could be more could be less i don't know the exact chance. I was just saying it to point out how the chances on the slot machine is most likely higher.
Though I ammit I was a bit high and forgot to work out about if the players used all 25 of their own tickets. Im not that good at maths sorry
@Batterey: No biggie... There's a lot of nonsense to take into consideration here, odds are good I missed something, too. I just feel like the best proof that 250k winners don't happen often is that we have many, many big guilds that go through hundreds of free tickets a day (not counting mission ticket wins and purchases) and nobody has reported a win yet.
From a story POV it makes perfect sense that a casino run by the Montana would have an "unattainable" jackpot. But when the slot machine was announced, it was presented as an opportunity for *more frequent* wins in somewhat smaller amounts. In addition to not being terribly exciting, I just feel it was/is a little misleading, as well...
24 mill? that number has little to no meaning
how many people that play at a time? maybe 10K-40K.
if you want to exaggerate it, maybe 100-200K on busy times
the rest? alt accounts or players that quit. it is a 6 years old online games after all, many comes and many goes
and then we can cut the number of people which below 30
I would assume it is more of 1 mill or at max 2 mill active players (or maybe only around 300K-500K)
To support my argument, you can take a look into the monthly ranking
there are around 81K players that play in this 1 months
add people like me who do not play, maybe you will get those 300-500K figure (or even less?)
(Sending this twice in case that my previous message didn't reach the mods. If it did, please delete this one)
The problem is not with the number of players, but the players itself.
You remember the true purpose of this DT CRs, right? They are given out in order to give the "less fortunate players" a chance to stand up against the Uppers.
However, you mustn't forget an important factor, human greed. What if this new rich gets cocky with his wealth and starts persecuting the poor and new players?
In fact, I think that it's already happening now, just compare the prices of the cards today with the prices before the Crs are given out for free.
And if we put another expensive CR into the equation, it means that we will add one more nouveau riche.
But, what if the salvations never reached the sick people? What if the rich players get even stronger?